The Terner Center’s New Affordability Measure Reveals a Shocking Reality for Most Californians—and the Implications Could Extend Nationwide
With homelessness soaring, Terner Center researchers set out to determine San Francisco’s true affordability level for all California residents. Post-analysis results show that 86% of Sunshine State residents cannot comfortably afford housing in San Francisco. With artificial intelligence influencing rental prices nationwide, this research has broader implications that could negatively impact the entire country. Here’s a look.
By the Numbers: UC Berkeley’s Terner Center for Housing Innovation Presents the Inclusive Affordability Measure
California’s homeless crisis rages like its wildfires, taking down whole communities and leaving behind trails of devastation. In May 2024, a team of researchers noticed glaring holes in affordability data within the state that could be contributing to the lack of affordable housing. As a response, they introduced a new tool, the first of its kind.
In their own words, the online interactive Inclusive Affordability Measure tool “considers not just current residents, but also those potential residents who are cut out of living in a place due to high housing costs.”
Unlike previous metrics, the program considers location-based household expenses that keep some statewide residents homeless while keeping others out of the region entirely. Some of the most common of these include:
- Transportation expenses
- The price of childcare and more
Quantifying housing affordability using this new scale of metrics yielded dismal but unsurprising results. Most Californians can’t afford a San Francisco residency, and the small percentage who can, still won’t live comfortably.
What the Data Says: Key Findings and Broader Implications
According to the San Francisco Examiner, the tool yields the following key results:
- More than half of all California residents – 55% to be precise – cannot afford a San Francisco residency at all and would find it “difficult to get by” in this economy
- 14% of California residents could scrape by on the bare minimum, their quality of life likely to suffer from financial disparities
- Only 14% of all statewide residents could live comfortably in San Francisco
This means a staggering 86% of Californians are unable to comfortably afford a San Francisco address, highlighting the widespread nature of the crisis. This impacts residency across the state because it forces Californians to grapple with the tiny supply of affordable housing in other regions of the state, as low- and middle-income earners are increasingly forced to relocate elsewhere.
Notedly, this will not only impact California. It could be a deciding factor in what housing experts are calling the mass exodus. As Californians increasingly relocate to nearby states that were once more affordable, such as Texas and Arizona, this drives up the demand and housing prices in these markets as well, creating a surge in the cost of living that spans cities, states, and borders.
Soaring Prices and Illegal Practices Are Fueling Homelessness
As housing prices increase, homelessness follows. Add to this the prospect of artificially inflating rental prices via illegal rent-setting software like the RealPage scandal, and we are looking at a nationwide problem.
Kate Pocock is a California-based clinician who tends to the needs of unsheltered homeless people via the USC Street Medicine team. She has been busy treating individuals for dehydration as the urban heat island effect takes its toll. She took a few moments out of her busy schedule to discuss the pressing affordability issue with Invisible People, stating that many of her patients simply cannot afford their rent.
“Rent alone has become inaccessible for so many folks,” she said. “In the field, we see folks who are being evicted and don’t have another option other than the streets as rental prices keep increasing. The cost of living is just too high.”
Working homeless people struggle to make ends meet and stay employed while on the streets. A separate study published by UCLA found that nearly half of homeless California residents, approximately 47%, had been working within the four years leading up to their displacement. The wages were often insufficient.
As homelessness wears on, it becomes increasingly difficult to remain employed due to a lack of access to transportation, utilities, and sanitation. However, that does not stop people from pushing through working one or more jobs, 40 or more hours per week, to no avail.
“Many unhoused people are barely making a living wage even though they work 40-plus hours a week,” said Pocock.
This Level of Poverty and Homelessness Could Come to a City Near You. Talk to Your Representatives.
Often, the Sunshine State sets the standard, and what we see there is a projection of things to come. Imagine if 86% of the residents in your state couldn’t afford to live in the closest city. Now, imagine if that were the case across the country.
It’s time to get serious about the lack of affordable housing before the Pandora’s box of homelessness cannot be shut. Tell your local legislators they need to earn your vote this time around by drafting laws that make housing a human right.
