Trump-Era Policies Are Stripping Away the Support Housing First Needs to Succeed. Hennepin County Offers a Blueprint to Reverse Course.
On July 17, New York University published a report that found that under the Trump Administration’s two-year proposed limit on rental assistance, 1.4 million households could lose their subsidies. If adopted, housing authorities would be forced to evict many of these families.
But this proposed limit is only one of the housing program-slashing measures Trump has adopted. Between January and April 2025, the National Low Income Housing Coalition reported 23% reductions in the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s workforce. Scott Turner, Trump appointee and Secretary of HUD, wants to go further. He has proposed 50% reductions in HUD’s workforce.
Additionally, the Trump Administration has proposed a 44% reduction in funding to affordable housing, homelessness, and community development programs, contributing to $33 billion total in budget cuts. On March 14, the Administration stripped the United States Interagency Council (USICH) on Homelessness “to the maximum extent” possible under law. USICH coordinates the federal response to homelessness between federal departments and agencies. All USICH staff were placed on administrative leave in April.
These cuts are unprecedented, but the support behind them is not new. For years, conservative think tanks have backed cuts to Housing First Programs. The Heritage Foundation and the Cicero Institute have called those programs worthless. They’ve pointed to rising homelessness rates in the face of increased spending on housing programs. They have backed the “Treatment First” model, fully adopted under the Trump Administration.
So are these reports true? Is homelessness really on the rise? And is Housing First really failing?
Former HUD Advisor Speaks with Invisible People
On July 14, Marcy Thompson joined Invisible People’s podcast to uncover what’s happened since Trump took office in the housing space. Thompson is the Vice President of Programs and Policy at the National Alliance to End Homelessness. Her experience extends far into housing advocacy, not just in the nonprofit space but also in the federal workforce. She served at HUD for over 10 years and later at USICH as the director for policy initiatives.
Thompson highlighted that during the Trump Administration’s first term, HUD underwent a major narrative shift surrounding supportive housing programs. Instead of focusing on increasing the supply of housing, as was the case throughout the 2010s, blame shifted toward homeless individuals themselves. Policies no longer were designed to meet individuals’ needs. And this “Treatment First” approach took greater hold.
At the same time, affordable housing spending dwindled. The supply of housing across the country dropped. So while some communities adopted Housing First strategies, more and more people entered homelessness due to soaring housing costs.
Thompson explained with Invisible People that this trend continues to this day. Advocacy organizations like Thompson’s are spending more than ever to give people permanent shelter. California, notably, has poured billions of dollars into fighting homelessness. But still, the state suffers from some of the worst homelessness rates in the country: over 20 percent of homeless Americans live in California.
Homelessness does not continue to spike with more spending because of poor fund management. In Los Angeles, for example, nonprofits have housed more residents than ever before. Instead, the problem is that nonprofits have been unable to keep up with an even greater growth in the number of people becoming homeless.
What About Housing First?
In the podcast, Thompson explained that in 2013, HUD first started to welcome Housing First programs. The department offered grants to communities that would be willing to adopt a Housing First approach. But over time, the public became concerned. Homelessness rates did not decrease. In many communities, they actually increased, even when their cities and state had spent taxpayer dollars on Housing First programs.
However, Thompson pushed back against the notion that Housing First needed to change. “Is it the model that has failed, or is it the lack of resources to do that [which] has failed?” she questioned.
When Housing First programs did not receive adequate funding, they often failed. The housing provided only met short-term needs. Without social services or treatment centers, individuals suffering from substance abuse could not receive the support necessary to maintain a home. Without eviction prevention help, in the face of family or personal emergencies, many were unable to know how to keep paying rent. Without personalized outreach, many people were unaware of available services in the first place.
So while Housing First may have failed in some areas, the issue has not been the strategy itself. It has been its implementation. Faced with funding shortages and a lack of support services to meet the needs of those housed, many Housing First programs have lacked the tools to succeed.
Mixed with Trump’s massive cutbacks in HUD spending, the Housing First programs that still rely on HUD will never be set up for success. At the same time, as HUD reduces its spending, funding for affordable housing developments will dry up, thereby not just reducing the supply of affordable housing but raising housing prices across the board.
And, as Thompson explained in her interview with Invisible People, as HUD shrinks its workforce, case workers will be overloaded with homeless individuals to support. They will never be able to respond to the needs of homeless Americans effectively. Instead, the burden of securing their right to a permanent home will be all the more placed on homeless individuals who are in their most vulnerable state. This is not a recipe for success. It is a recipe that leaves more people stranded on the streets.
The Lesson from Hennepin County
If more funding is the key to better Housing First program success, where should the funding go? A county in the heart of Minneapolis, Minnesota, offers an eye-opening solution.
After the pandemic, Hennepin County invested nearly 40% of its pandemic recovery funds into supporting homeless-prevention and affordable housing initiatives. One of those programs backed an independent agency called Adult Representation Services (ARS), which offers legal support to residents facing eviction. Eviction-prevention programs like these are one aspect of a fully embodied Housing First program that does not simply provide individuals with an apartment.
Under programs like ARS, Hennepin County has been able to save taxpayer dollars on affordable housing measures by preventing the cycle of homelessness from starting in the first place. Homeless encampment sweeps, arrests, jail time, or even shelter beds all exhaust taxpayer funding from local and federal governments. With eviction prevention programs, the county is forced to pay a small amount of money upfront to prevent someone from entering homelessness. But the county is protected from having to contribute to homelessness reduction measures in the future.
Hennepin’s Housing First-based solution did not just stop there, but it also included investments in its homelessness response system, its outreach programs, and several low-barrier shelters.
As a result, the county has housed over 900 people between November 2021 and October 2024 at a 94% retention rate. Under its new program, it has preserved 1,500 units of affordable housing and has provided emergency rental assistance to more than 2,000 households, of which fewer than 2 percent later entered homelessness. Encampments across the county have shrunk and/or disappeared. And since 2020, the county has seen a 33% reduction in rough sleepers, contrasting national trends of increased rough sleeping.
Housing First was never intended to be a housing-only solution. Instead, in its maturity, Housing First needed to be met by a five-pronged approach: affordable housing, eviction prevention, shelters, community outreach, and permanent supportive housing. Each of these pieces was key to Hennepin County’s success story. They too need to be a piece in our nation’s Housing First strategy.
While some advocate for Housing First, let us be thoughtful in how we back such a policy. Underfunded and oversimplified, Housing First will fail. But backed by data and an outlook that humanizes Americans living without a home, HUD can begin to create housing solutions for all Americans.
