No Evidence ICE Enforcement Is Lowering Rent in Los Angeles

No Evidence ICE Enforcement Is Lowering Rent in Los Angeles

Falling rents in Los Angeles are being driven by new housing supply built in part by immigrant workers, not the enforcement actions a viral claim suggests.


A viral claim linking ICE enforcement to falling rents in Los Angeles misrepresents the data, which shows increased housing supply—not deportation—is driving lower prices.


Misinformation From the Department of Homeland Security Wrongly Attributed ICE to the LA Rental Rate Reductions

It started with a click and quickly reached 3.1 million viewers.

On the surface, the tweet seemed legitimate; after all, it was published by a well-known government organization, and it featured an excerpt from an article published by the LA Times. Line for line, the text read as follows: “Want affordable housing? Help report illegal aliens in your area. Call 866-DHS-2-ICE. If you are an illegal alien, you can take control of your departure using  http://DHS.GOV/CBPHOME”

Beneath the tweet, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson linked to an LA Times article about rental rate reductions, writing that “~3 million illegal aliens leaving the country has massive economic and supply chain implications.”


The post quickly gained traction online, drawing millions of views and sparking debate about whether immigration enforcement was influencing housing costs.

To be fair, the article, titled “Finally, a Renter’s Market; LA Rent Prices Drop to Four-Year Low,” did state that “communities targeted by immigration officers, such as Long Beach and East L.A., saw a jump in vacancies.”

However, further scrutiny of the article shows that LA rental rate reductions were not shown to be significantly connected to the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s enforcement activity over the past year in any positive or significant way.

According to LA Times reporters, there was a surge in new construction that drove the housing supply up precisely at a time when demand was down. To that end, 15,000 new multifamily units emerged in 2025, and those units played a vital role in pushing the vacancy rate over 5%, creating a renter’s market for many in the region. The surprisingly optimistic result was a median decrease in rent prices of about 9.1% year-over-year.

Notably, immigrant workers make up a significant portion of California’s construction workforce, meaning they play a key role in expanding housing supply.

As It Turns Out, California Immigrants Played a Massive Role in LA Rent Reductions by Building the Housing that Undercut the Crisis.

Yes, immigration was a factor in LA-based rent reductions. However, immigrants played a massive role in these developments, not by being deported, but by building the abundant supply of multifamily housing units.

According to the Urban Institute, foreign-born construction workers account for between 37 and 39% of California’s construction workforce. Researchers estimate that Texas and California actually boast the largest number of foreign-born construction laborers, totaling about 1.1 million workers between the two states.

As such, mass deportations disproportionately threaten the supply of affordable housing in these areas, and, if they happen on a large scale, they could significantly impact the construction workforce and slow housing development.

ICE is a Threat to Public Safety and Housing Security

In a press release shared with Invisible People and fellow housing advocates, the National Low Income Housing Coalition condemned ICE for using discriminatory tactics and deadly force and proclaimed that their actions are actually a threat to housing stability, and not a defense for renters. Here is that verbatim statement:

“The National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) condemns the recent use of deadly force by federal immigration enforcement agents, which has sparked widespread outrage and protests across the country. The killings of Keith Porter Jr., Silverio Villegas González, Renée Good, and Alex Pretti demonstrate that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) present an ongoing and imminent threat to the areas where they operate. Moreover, leaked reports that the agencies are conducting warrantless home searches and seizures, targeting immigrants, people of color, and detaining children, provide further evidence that these federal agencies are out of control, threatening family and housing stability and livelihoods.”

Rent Caps, Remote Work Opportunities, and California’s Mass Exodus Were Factors Too

It’s important to mention that this rental market dip took place just as LA’s city council tightened its grip on rent control and put a cap on increases that sits between 1 and 4%.

Remember when big real estate said rent control would decrease the available supply of affordable housing? It turns out that’s not true; another landlord scare tactic has been debunked.

Housing market experts reiterate the fact that surplus is largely the determining factor in LA’s latest vacancy rate. But, if you want to home in on relocation, we must also acknowledge the fact that California has experienced net population loss in recent years, driven in part by high housing costs. Some analyses estimate that millions of people have moved out of California over the past decade, though overall population trends reflect both people leaving and moving into the state.

The Public Policy Institute of California revealed that for the past 25 years, the state’s population has seen its slowest growth rate in recorded history. The irony here is that millions of people migrated away from California due to the extremely high cost of living, specifically the astronomical price of housing. It should not be surprising that if you charge people more than they can afford to live, they will go elsewhere, and you will be forced to lower your rental rates anyway.

The fifteen thousand or so deportations are ultimately a drop in the bucket compared to the millions of residents who left of their own accord.

An Adequate Housing Supply is the Real Reason Rent is More Affordable. Tell Your Legislators.

As always, the answer to the unaffordability crisis and the homeless crisis is housing. An abundance of affordable homes will drive down rental rates, and without immigrants, new construction is a near impossibility.

Tell your legislators you’re fatigued by backwards rhetoric that encourages people to hate their neighbors as opposed to housing them. No matter your country of origin, housing should be a human right for all.


Cynthia

Cynthia Griffith

     

Cynthia Griffith is a freelance writer dedicated to social justice and environmental issues.

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