It’s Not ‘Personal Choice’ — New Data Points to an Unaffordable Housing Market
The US total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.599 births per woman in 2024, according to finalized CDC/NCHS data, continuing a downward trend that US Census Bureau data confirms has persisted almost every year since 2007.
As many will remember, the 2007 recession and 2008 housing crisis left lasting damage on the national economy. New evidence indicates this did more than change the residential landscape.
The lack of housing affordability appears to have reshaped the making of the American family, and there are economic consequences to putting off marriages and experiencing childbearing delays.
Is Unaffordable Housing Wiping Out the US Population?
Based on the latest evidence, the answer is not a resounding yes, but a cautious maybe. While America isn’t exactly being wiped out (yet), it has dipped well below the level needed to replace its population. While not the only factor, the lack of affordable housing is central to the scandal.
America’s fertility decline cannot be merely attributed to personal preference or choice as it has been portrayed in mainstream media. Data shows that housing affordability imposes a significant burden and delays family formation. And as many couples wait for the unaffordable housing market to ease or the median wage to catch up with rental rates, women today are missing their fertility windows altogether or having fewer kids because of the added costs.
“I used to say I wanted four kids, but as we’ve gotten older and seeing how expensive it is, I realized that probably won’t happen. It would be more like two or three,” said Rose on a podcast produced by Money Rehab.
In the grand scheme of socioeconomic upheaval, Rose is far from an anomaly. Her story echoes the experience of people 18-45.
According to survey data reported on by ABC 13, “56% of millennials and 72% of Gen Z adults are delaying at least one significant milestone because of financial challenges.”
Both demographics cited buying a home as their biggest concern.
Housing Costs Affect Fertility Decisions. Lower Birth Rates Impact Labor Markets and Healthcare Prices. Here’s Why That Matters.
Below-replacement-level birth rates can adversely affect the national workforce for generations. Larger labor-market effects show up decades later, as there are fewer young people than senior citizens. This can translate to slower economic growth and an increasingly automated job market, because there will simply be fewer young, able-bodied people to employ.
In a different economy, the scarcity of young workers would serve as a bargaining chip for higher wages. However, given the current affinity for artificial intelligence, skeptical financial analysts warn this could only further encourage corporations to use AI in place of actual laborers.
Perhaps the more pressing problem, though, is the negative impact low fertility has on healthcare. Imagine housing a majority aging population. This demographic needs much more medical assistance than a younger demographic would. If seniors start to outnumber teenagers and young adults, healthcare premiums will rise, and there will be too few young people to meet the aging population’s medical needs. This means more patients than doctors and more elderly people than working adults.
Increased federal spending on major healthcare programs is the inevitable future in such a scenario. And that means higher taxes. But without a workforce full of young laborers, who will pay them?
Strains on Relationships Are Causing Homelessness
As the American family slowly deteriorates, the social safety nets it once afforded are disappearing too.
In an exclusive discussion with Invisible People reporters, the Executive Director of United to End Homelessness, Becks Heyhoe-Khalil, explained that the latest Orange County Point-In-Time Count included a never-before-conducted survey asking homeless people what factors caused them to become homeless.
Approximately 55% of participants self-reported financial hardships as the reason for their housing instability. The second-most reported cause was relationship problems.
“The 2nd highest reason for Orange County homelessness is relationship factors,” said Becks. “That accounted for 20%. So, almost three-quarters of people experiencing homelessness in our community fell into homelessness because of financial reasons or some sort of challenge in their relationship. That could have been domestic violence, divorce, separation, or possibly the death of a family member who was earning the household’s main source of income.”
Social safety nets are being ripped out from beneath the American people. Budget cuts are being made to vital programs that once kept people afloat through hardships. But beyond the financial aspect, lower birth rates have also changed the dynamic of US families, and the social support once established by thriving families and youth-driven communities is slipping away.
The US Desperately Needs Permanent Affordable Housing to Sustain a Fruitful Future
We currently have a below-replacement-level birth rate, compounded by a drastic decrease in net migration. Our workforce is heavily reliant on foreign-born laborers. Our government is increasingly enforcing policies that negatively impact immigration.
Meanwhile, impoverished low- and middle-income earners are putting off buying homes, getting married, and having children. This illustrates how the ever-burgeoning housing crisis is forcing our economy into decline. Tell your local legislators to draft laws that prioritize permanent, affordable housing for all.
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